Q&A: Explaining Myth Versus Reality About Today’s Housing Market

Q: Given the uncertainty in the financial markets and economy, is this a good time to buy?

A: The answer is simple: Yes. It’s a good time to buy. Today’s market, coupled with a generous temporary tax credit for first-time home buyers and near-record low mortgage interest rates, provides an unprecedented window of opportunity for prospective home buyers. An outstanding selection is another reason that it’s a great time to buy. Available inventory is probably the best it will ever be, providing buyers with a great choice of homes. Many builders have inventory that is “move-in ready,” and they may offer upgrades or other incentives to seal the deal. Likewise, owners of existing homes who are looking to trade-up or relocate are ready to bargain. Add it all up and there may never be another buyer’s market as good as today’s.


Q: There doesn’t seem to be an end in sight to the housing slump. By the time the market hits bottom, won’t housing be down and out for the count?

A: Without trying to minimize the problems we have today, it’s important to keep your eye on the big picture. Over the long-term, the U.S. is definitely on a growth path. Our population will rise by about 35 million over the next 10 years. All of those people will need someplace to live. Consider these facts: America currently has about 105 million occupied housing units. About 70 million of those are owner-occupied. The other 35 million are rental units. Total equity (value of homes minus any mortgage debt) amounts to $8.5 trillion. More than one-third of all home owners own their home outright, with no mortgage debt. And more than 90 percent of those who have mortgages are making their payments on time every month.

Home values will ultimately bottom out and start edging back up. Once we turn the corner on the housing downturn, the longer term outlook is very promising.
As a long-term investment, homeownership remains a solid investment for individual households, with a track record that can compete with any other purchase in terms of its real benefits. The home building industry will need to construct more than 17 million new homes in the next decade to keep up with expected new household formations.
All of this bodes well for future house price appreciation


Q: Does the government action to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September signal that the mortgage market is in a free fall? In other words, does the government takeover of these two mortgage finance giants mean that mortgage money has dried up?

A: The short answer to both questions is no. Quite the contrary, the federal takeover was initiated to avert any serious risk to the financial system and to keep money available for mortgages. It’s still business as usual for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. There is no credit crunch for qualified buyers taking out conventional loans. Remember, the housing law enacted this summer has permanently boosted the limit for these loans from $417,000 to $625,500. And this is where the bulk of all home loans are made. Credit-worthy home buyers should have no problems finding conventional, conforming mortgages at very attractive rates. In fact, today’s mortgage rates remain near historic lows, well below 6 percent for fixed-rate, 30-year loans.


Q: With the nation in a foreclosure crisis, why should I be looking for a new home?

A: While foreclosure rates have increased in the past year, the vast majority of American home owners are making their mortgage payments on time. More than 95 percent of prime borrowers – the bulk of the mortgage market – are up-to-date on their payments. Most foreclosures are concentrated in the once super-heated markets in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada and the upper Midwest states of Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota and Illinois, which have been hit hard by job losses, plant closings and depressed local economies.

But again, we need to put this problem into perspective. As noted above, California and Florida are at the epicenter of this problem. California and Florida had about 54 percent and 41 percent of the prime and subprime ARM foreclosure starts in the third quarter of 2008, respectively, according to the latest foreclosure data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

There’s no question that the foreclosure issue is a major problem that needs to be addressed. That is why we are encouraging lawmakers to include aggressive foreclosure relief measures in the economic stimulus package that the new Congress is expected to pass in January.

Q: In today’s housing environment, isn’t the smart move to keep waiting for prices to fall even further before venturing into the housing market?

A: The current housing price correction is helping to restore affordability. In many parts of the country where the housing boom was not as strong, price declines have been modest. The bottom line for most existing home owners is that their homes will be worth significantly more than they paid for them once the market begins to recover – a process that is expected to begin in 2009. The repercussion for prospective buyers is that the market has provided some breathing room from the sky-high prices prevailing between 2003 and 2006. And those who try to “time the market” in hopes of buying at the trough are likely to lose out. Here’s why. Just as no one can accurately predict the peaks and valleys of the stock market, the same holds true for housing. Fence-sitters waiting for the absolute best deal could end up literally waiting for years, and most likely their guess on market timing would be wrong. Meanwhile, those who buy now will have a home they can call their own and reap the long-term gains of home price appreciation.

Q: It seems that home prices will just keep going lower and never recover. What’s to stop this from happening?

A: It is a virtual given that over time home values will stabilize and then edge upward with the next recovery. To argue that home values will continue to decline and will never recover, somebody has to make a convincing argument that it will cost less to build a new home five years from now than it does today. That’s not going to happen.

Despite today’s housing slowdown, the price of most building materials used in home construction continue to go up due to worldwide demand and upward pressure on commodity prices generally. Also, over time labor costs are expected to rise. Look at anticipated population and household growth; consider the increasing scarcity of available land in metro markets where jobs are located and where people want to live. And the cost of getting land entitled will continue to go up because of more and more restrictions and fees being added by local governments. As inventories wind down, demand will rise and so will prices. Over time, all these factors will help drive up the cost of housing.


Q: The S&P/Case-Shiller monthly home price index showed that home prices declined an average of 17.4 percent in the nation’s 20 largest markets between September 2007 and September 2008. Does this mean that home prices in these markets -- and nationwide -- are in a major tailspin?

A: Different economic and job-market conditions directly affect demand for new and existing homes in every market Part of the problem is due to an influx of speculators in some large markets who helped drive prices up to unsustainable levels. For example, all the markets that posted the largest average decline in home prices during the past year – Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa – still have appreciated in value by at least 40 percent since January 2000, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price statistics. Four of these markets – San Diego, Tampa, Miami and Los Angeles – were up between 64 and 85 percent over this period.

It makes sense that the most super-heated housing markets in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida are now experiencing the most serious market corrections. Areas in the Midwest are also undergoing price corrections due to stagnant economic conditions. For the rest of the country, however, the price adjustments have been relatively modest.
Though housing is a cyclical business, experience shows that over time, home prices will stabilize and then move upward with the next recovery.

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